At midnight tonight, the end of one of the most active senate campaign seasons will come to an end. students will be able to see the naked walls that were once covered by 21 faces, the sidewalks on campus will no longer have chalk that smears onto your shoes, and that quiet girl in history class will no longer be contemplating getting a restraining order from all those candidates stalking her for votes. That being said it's time for my final poll with confidence percentage next to it to showcase how that 9th spot is going to be the hardest prediction to make.
Locks:
Megan H. 100%
Seejo V. 100%
Ben C. 100%
Laura M. 100%
Kensie S 80%
Clinching
Micheal R.70%
Nate B. 70&
On the Bubble
Carley S. 55%
Alex H. 50%
Amanda L. 35%
Mathew H. 30%
Marshal P 25%
With the confidence scale intact, the Searcey Poll has a 72.5% chance of being perfect. Now time for the other election predictions below
Diversity Interest Senator-at-Large
Lacee G. 100%
beating 4 years of name recognition is pretty much an impossible feat
Business School
Quint H. 75%
Name recognition from last campaign run will get the swing votes he needs.
Pharmacy School
Taylor W. 65%
A relatively quiet campaign with little publicity, this one will be close.
Journalism School
Rachel K. 100%
A write-in campaign against a well known junior seems almost impossible.
Arts and Sciences
Dane B. 55% *
Being a campaign manager for his campaign means that I am biased in my predictions. Winning a write in campaign seems nearly impossible especially against a candidate who has won an at-large campaign before. That being said, Dane has amassed over 330 Drake students in his Facebook group (more than any other candidate's group, even those open to more than the Drake network) and his campaign video and group's wall have become viral and popular. Being a write-in means that the girl in the back of your history class must really know you in order to write you in. It's like The difference between a multiple choice test and the dreaded short answer, the former is about recognition while the latter is about a lasting impression.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Saturday, April 3, 2010
To the Elite Eight and it's Traits
It's time to expand the blog to include the next segment of election predictions. When the votes are announced on Tuesday, I fully expect a large gap to exist between the top four candidates and the other six. With 21 candidates fighting in the polls, this election will most likely have a heart breaker with a candidate missing the 9th spot by less than 20 votes. In the end, I hope candidates remember that the election does not measure who will be a better Senator, it will only be a measurement of who was able to get more people to spend 2 seconds to click their box. Some of the most dedicated members of Drake's Student Senate have not won or barely won in their first attempt at the elections, our current Student Body President and next year's are examples of that.
Next Four:
Kensie S., Michael R., Nate B., Carley S.
One thing that you must pay attention to in this election is cross-cutting associations and identification. If you voted in the last U.S. Presidential Election, you may have went to the polls to vote for just the President, but since you had the option to check the box in all the other elections, you may have just voted down the line with others you recognized or that were part of your party. To gauge who will win you have to look back and try to guess what demographic is going to be the most hyped up and motivated to show up and vote. On election day, I think the freshmen class will show up, and although they may not vote primarily because of these candidates being on the ballot; they will likely recognize them and click the box. These candidates have large pockets of guaranteed votes from groups they belong to. This year I feel like the number to win a spot on senate will be around 300. When 1/3 of those votes are guaranteed to you by a Greek house or large professional fraternity, winning becomes much easier.
I will delay my predictions for school specific elections till tomorrow. Saturday is when I'll narrow down the remaining candidates into who I think is still on the bubble, before making my final predictions on Sunday.
*This time find 11 grammar mistakes and get a lollipop. Yesterday's winner: Matt Nelson
Next Four:
Kensie S., Michael R., Nate B., Carley S.
One thing that you must pay attention to in this election is cross-cutting associations and identification. If you voted in the last U.S. Presidential Election, you may have went to the polls to vote for just the President, but since you had the option to check the box in all the other elections, you may have just voted down the line with others you recognized or that were part of your party. To gauge who will win you have to look back and try to guess what demographic is going to be the most hyped up and motivated to show up and vote. On election day, I think the freshmen class will show up, and although they may not vote primarily because of these candidates being on the ballot; they will likely recognize them and click the box. These candidates have large pockets of guaranteed votes from groups they belong to. This year I feel like the number to win a spot on senate will be around 300. When 1/3 of those votes are guaranteed to you by a Greek house or large professional fraternity, winning becomes much easier.
I will delay my predictions for school specific elections till tomorrow. Saturday is when I'll narrow down the remaining candidates into who I think is still on the bubble, before making my final predictions on Sunday.
*This time find 11 grammar mistakes and get a lollipop. Yesterday's winner: Matt Nelson
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Final Four and More
It's that time again, Student Senate elections. I'm going to start off today with the final four; the top four candidates that are pretty much a lock before the election week even began. First lets look at some of the factors that have the most weight in this upcoming elections, and some that are overrated.
What matters:
Name recognition
From having your name in the TD, to being in social spotlight and gossip circles, name recognition is the single most important factor in the election. When it comes down to that weekend vote, you know that your friends have your back, but its whether that quiet girl in the back of your history class remembers your name on the night the ballot goes out that is the real swing vote
Associations:
The most active on campus, are the most active in the polls. Most people don't care about senate and it is why usually not even a majority of campus will vote. The people who do vote are the visible ones who probably are involved with 2 or more clubs on campus. The largest of these associations is greek life, comprised of around 30% of campus. This is why election after election, greeks continued to dominate the votes because greeks recognize other greek members.
What doesn't matter:
Platforms
You can tell us that you're going to renovate greek path, or that you will improve the bell center weight room, but in the end they are usually empty promises and the campus recognizes it as such. Similar to Presidential elections, most people don't really know the platforms of who they are voting for, and those that take the time to actually research the candidates, are usually the hardest to win over anyways so mine as well keep trying to get that quiet girl in the back of your history class.
Posters
Posters have initial value of raising awareness about the election, but in the end as boards become cluttered and people begin to get sick of the eyesore that candidates faces can become, posters do not win over votes. Unique placement of signs can give you a small boost, but the two seconds they see your poster will only maintain their name short term in their head before they think of more pressing issues, like how much I want a buffalo chicken wrap.
Juggernaut Incumbents
Megan and Ben
These two will most likely finish in the top two in total votes based on sheer name recognition. From being involved in greek life, to being the in public spotlight with senate positions, both these candidates have a guaranteed seat. Although Ben has had some rough patches with bad publicity under the impeachment proceeding, his name recognition permeates through campus and that quiet girl in the back of your history class will most definitely be voting for him.
Manufactured Incumbents
Laura and Seejo
If you run in the spotlight of an executive election, you are most likely going to win. In Seejo's case he was able to compete in against a very small stage of candidates and some voters automatically think anyone running for a top office should be more than qualified for a lower senate position. Laura, like Seejo, has never been a Senator-at-Large but having other spots on senate as well as being an upperclassmen will be enough to land them a spot near the top.
Tomorrow, I'll expand the analysis to who I think will be in the Elite 8, and showcase the front runners for the other non at-large elections.
*if you find 26 grammatical mistakes in this update, I will give you a lollipop
What matters:
Name recognition
From having your name in the TD, to being in social spotlight and gossip circles, name recognition is the single most important factor in the election. When it comes down to that weekend vote, you know that your friends have your back, but its whether that quiet girl in the back of your history class remembers your name on the night the ballot goes out that is the real swing vote
Associations:
The most active on campus, are the most active in the polls. Most people don't care about senate and it is why usually not even a majority of campus will vote. The people who do vote are the visible ones who probably are involved with 2 or more clubs on campus. The largest of these associations is greek life, comprised of around 30% of campus. This is why election after election, greeks continued to dominate the votes because greeks recognize other greek members.
What doesn't matter:
Platforms
You can tell us that you're going to renovate greek path, or that you will improve the bell center weight room, but in the end they are usually empty promises and the campus recognizes it as such. Similar to Presidential elections, most people don't really know the platforms of who they are voting for, and those that take the time to actually research the candidates, are usually the hardest to win over anyways so mine as well keep trying to get that quiet girl in the back of your history class.
Posters
Posters have initial value of raising awareness about the election, but in the end as boards become cluttered and people begin to get sick of the eyesore that candidates faces can become, posters do not win over votes. Unique placement of signs can give you a small boost, but the two seconds they see your poster will only maintain their name short term in their head before they think of more pressing issues, like how much I want a buffalo chicken wrap.
Juggernaut Incumbents
Megan and Ben
These two will most likely finish in the top two in total votes based on sheer name recognition. From being involved in greek life, to being the in public spotlight with senate positions, both these candidates have a guaranteed seat. Although Ben has had some rough patches with bad publicity under the impeachment proceeding, his name recognition permeates through campus and that quiet girl in the back of your history class will most definitely be voting for him.
Manufactured Incumbents
Laura and Seejo
If you run in the spotlight of an executive election, you are most likely going to win. In Seejo's case he was able to compete in against a very small stage of candidates and some voters automatically think anyone running for a top office should be more than qualified for a lower senate position. Laura, like Seejo, has never been a Senator-at-Large but having other spots on senate as well as being an upperclassmen will be enough to land them a spot near the top.
Tomorrow, I'll expand the analysis to who I think will be in the Elite 8, and showcase the front runners for the other non at-large elections.
*if you find 26 grammatical mistakes in this update, I will give you a lollipop
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