The Searcey Poll: 2009

I would first like to thank Shane for making me a contributor to this blog and to analyze his prediction. It was interesting to see how these predictions developed, and the grounds in which they were made. In the following post I'll provide a perspective of how some of the election fundamentals showcase the predictability of such elections and how the Searcy poll loses it's validity without the historical context of previous Senate elections. This may end up transitioning into one of my ideas for my senior thesis next year (barriers to democracy) so I thought i would close my tangential thoughts here. We'll start with a breakdown of some questions that showcase how we can make flaws in some of our judgments

Freshmen are most likely to vote, but why least likely to win?
Why did everyone receive almost twice as many votes as FB group members?
Why does most of campus not vote even when most of campus is aware of the elections?

From the following I'll try and prove how the election isn't a long drawn out process with frontrunner's and underdog's like United States elections, but instead that most of the election is won before the petitions are even released.

Vivacious Incumbents Handicap: +3
Name key contributors
1. Eric greek life, extensive name recognition
2. Kyle incumbent, unique charisma, well known in business school
3. Megan greek life, name recognition from previous election
4. Sam greek life, RHA, name recognition from previous election

The incumbents enter the race with the heaviest handicap, most people who vote for incumbents don't actually know platforms or what that person has actually done but instead the most prominent facts that they recall is their associations with groups and titles. Sam and Megan were not true incumbents to the At-Large position but being on the senate table will find it's way into transferring into name recognition, this can explain the difference between Eric's 935 votes to Sam's 582 which parallels real politics in which 90% of incumbent senators and representatives are elected. Most voters give incumbents the benefit of the doubt and since voting is an easy task of just clicking, the easy access to a ballot ensures that everyone votes not just the ones that are very motivated. this leads some voters to hastily click on names they know instead of leaving a semi barren ballot. After the incumbents the other candidates were all separated by less than 100 votes which also showcases how heavy the incumbency factor is. For those that voted in the recent presidential election, and are not accustomed to thinking that many people vote in such a manner, try and remember how you voted for the 20+ other candidates that were not seeking presidential office. We felt justified in one or two candidates but beyond that small factors influenced us to vote one way instead of abstain. I regretfully remember writing in Ryan Kessler for the sanitation director position, I only regret it because I know now that he would of done a horrible job.

Experienced Platformer Handicap -1
5. Emily K. greek life, disenfranchised voters
6. Norah greek life, active members of senate

From here on out individuals are fighting for very small margins to put them on top, the smallest association with another organization could of made the 20 point difference to knock them down from 5th to 8th. The experienced platformer has the most room to analyze and draw up a platform that is the middle ground between what voter's want and what they know can be accomplished with current problems. A platformer is a candidate that has been incubated outside of senate and feels like they have the ability to jump right into the mix with the right ideas. Most freshmen cannot come in with the same platforms as these candidates because they don't feel they have enough experience to stray away from mainstream ideas, and develop their platforms on a cushioned barriers preventing them from making certain claims such as inefficiencies of a certain department. Incumbents cannot make some of the claims that platformer's can becouse calling out problems would be calling themselves out. These candidates have nothing to lose in not taking the paved paths and instead feel confident enough to make their own route. Emily struck more disenfranchised voters with her platform of showcasing how senate is broken. Norah struck those members of organizations that are frustrated in common problems that always reoccur. These candidates have more work to do because to get votes they need to convince those that do vote that their is a problem and nobody else is addressing it, and then get the disenfranchised voters to come back and vote for a candidate that finally believes in what they want.

Popular Buds Handicap +1
7: Greg Larson greek life, SAB, Organizational Council
8: Ben Whitmer greek life, RHA, hall president

These individuals are the the newbies that are the most commonly accepted among the most common of voters: Freshman. What sets these candidates apart from most other freshman is their ability to have their names grow into the minds of upperclassman. Larson gained buzz from his work with SAB and OC in which members were vocal about his contributions, other upperclassman kept his name afloat by crediting his approachability and charisma. Whitmer had a strong presence in the freshman class by having name recognition as hall president which is one of the few opportunities open to freshmen seeking leadership experience in heading a committee. Popularity and accolades in residence life kept his head visible amongst freshmen that remain relatively unknown to most upperclass voters. Freshman usually are more skeptical of each other and usually look upwards for guidance and advice on matters they are unsure of, they are more likely to vote for an upperclassmen then assume one of their own can do a better job.

Predictable Anomalies Handicap +2
9. Earl international students, RHA,
10. Carla greek life, name recognition from previous elections

9 and 10 have historically been the shocker's of the elections and this year was no different. Last year when the number 9 candidate was announced there was silence in the crowd and many stood amazed. 10 Last year went to a very popular junior who many people felt would of landed higher. Earl summarized the importance of having a unique base that reaches a consensus on voting for you over other candidates. Not being an incumbent or in greek life heavily hurt his chances relative to other candidates but being a member of International Students Association gave him a head start on the 450+ international students at Drake. This with residence life made him a lock in my earliest predictions but was considered a shock to some including the searcey poll. Carla however became an incumbency rider, showcasing how name recognition alone can ,get people elected. With no platform, no signs, and no campaign visits, many people were shocked on both sides for differing reasons. Many freshmen still learning the candidates didn't fully know who she was but accepted her as a leader on campus, and many upperclassmen wondered why she was not near the top with other incumbents. With an election cycle being only a week long, it's intense and busy for the candidates but in the end most of their minds were already made up the week before. How else can we explain a candidate like Carla winning?

Final thoughts
It was intresting when shuffling my notes, I noticed the first prediction I made on this election that had two lists, one had 8 senators I wanted to win, and the other had 10 senator's I thought would win. Luckily the latter was a perfect 10 but later on my predictions were altered by the first list. I also went through this selective process of not necessarily looking for candidates to find out what they stood for but instead looking into information that validated the claims I already have made. Many voter's go through the same process of backing certain candidates and shedding no light on other candidates, this makes a huge barrier to the campaign week actually being effective.

This campaign week showcases many aspects that are prevalent in modern politics. I'll leave you with my predictions on committee assignments ranked in the order of certainty. next week I may end up commenting on the negative handicaps of those that lost, most which they could not control, just like the actual election.

Emily K. Student Fees and Allocations Committee
Kyle Academic Affairs
Earl Community Outreach
Norah Campus Advancement
Ben Student Life Committee
Carla Faculty Senate Liaison
Sam Public Affairs Committee
Megan Organizational Senator Co-Chair
Greg Organizational Senator Co-Chair
Eric First Year Interest Committee

The Searcey Poll

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Searcey Flaws

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Election Results: The Searcey Poll calls 9 of 10.

WATCH: How many years did it take for Facebook to reach a market audience of 50 million?

Monday, April 6, 2009

Did you Vote in the Senator-at-Large election?

Senator-at-Large Election Forecast

Drake Voters' First Choice Candidates

Facebook Rankings 4.6.09

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Facebook Rankings

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Facebook Rankings

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Facebook Group Members Top 10

2009 Drake University Student Senate Senator-at-Large Election

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