At midnight tonight, the end of one of the most active senate campaign seasons will come to an end. students will be able to see the naked walls that were once covered by 21 faces, the sidewalks on campus will no longer have chalk that smears onto your shoes, and that quiet girl in history class will no longer be contemplating getting a restraining order from all those candidates stalking her for votes. That being said it's time for my final poll with confidence percentage next to it to showcase how that 9th spot is going to be the hardest prediction to make.
Locks:
Megan H. 100%
Seejo V. 100%
Ben C. 100%
Laura M. 100%
Kensie S 80%
Clinching
Micheal R.70%
Nate B. 70&
On the Bubble
Carley S. 55%
Alex H. 50%
Amanda L. 35%
Mathew H. 30%
Marshal P 25%
With the confidence scale intact, the Searcey Poll has a 72.5% chance of being perfect. Now time for the other election predictions below
Diversity Interest Senator-at-Large
Lacee G. 100%
beating 4 years of name recognition is pretty much an impossible feat
Business School
Quint H. 75%
Name recognition from last campaign run will get the swing votes he needs.
Pharmacy School
Taylor W. 65%
A relatively quiet campaign with little publicity, this one will be close.
Journalism School
Rachel K. 100%
A write-in campaign against a well known junior seems almost impossible.
Arts and Sciences
Dane B. 55% *
Being a campaign manager for his campaign means that I am biased in my predictions. Winning a write in campaign seems nearly impossible especially against a candidate who has won an at-large campaign before. That being said, Dane has amassed over 330 Drake students in his Facebook group (more than any other candidate's group, even those open to more than the Drake network) and his campaign video and group's wall have become viral and popular. Being a write-in means that the girl in the back of your history class must really know you in order to write you in. It's like The difference between a multiple choice test and the dreaded short answer, the former is about recognition while the latter is about a lasting impression.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Saturday, April 3, 2010
To the Elite Eight and it's Traits
It's time to expand the blog to include the next segment of election predictions. When the votes are announced on Tuesday, I fully expect a large gap to exist between the top four candidates and the other six. With 21 candidates fighting in the polls, this election will most likely have a heart breaker with a candidate missing the 9th spot by less than 20 votes. In the end, I hope candidates remember that the election does not measure who will be a better Senator, it will only be a measurement of who was able to get more people to spend 2 seconds to click their box. Some of the most dedicated members of Drake's Student Senate have not won or barely won in their first attempt at the elections, our current Student Body President and next year's are examples of that.
Next Four:
Kensie S., Michael R., Nate B., Carley S.
One thing that you must pay attention to in this election is cross-cutting associations and identification. If you voted in the last U.S. Presidential Election, you may have went to the polls to vote for just the President, but since you had the option to check the box in all the other elections, you may have just voted down the line with others you recognized or that were part of your party. To gauge who will win you have to look back and try to guess what demographic is going to be the most hyped up and motivated to show up and vote. On election day, I think the freshmen class will show up, and although they may not vote primarily because of these candidates being on the ballot; they will likely recognize them and click the box. These candidates have large pockets of guaranteed votes from groups they belong to. This year I feel like the number to win a spot on senate will be around 300. When 1/3 of those votes are guaranteed to you by a Greek house or large professional fraternity, winning becomes much easier.
I will delay my predictions for school specific elections till tomorrow. Saturday is when I'll narrow down the remaining candidates into who I think is still on the bubble, before making my final predictions on Sunday.
*This time find 11 grammar mistakes and get a lollipop. Yesterday's winner: Matt Nelson
Next Four:
Kensie S., Michael R., Nate B., Carley S.
One thing that you must pay attention to in this election is cross-cutting associations and identification. If you voted in the last U.S. Presidential Election, you may have went to the polls to vote for just the President, but since you had the option to check the box in all the other elections, you may have just voted down the line with others you recognized or that were part of your party. To gauge who will win you have to look back and try to guess what demographic is going to be the most hyped up and motivated to show up and vote. On election day, I think the freshmen class will show up, and although they may not vote primarily because of these candidates being on the ballot; they will likely recognize them and click the box. These candidates have large pockets of guaranteed votes from groups they belong to. This year I feel like the number to win a spot on senate will be around 300. When 1/3 of those votes are guaranteed to you by a Greek house or large professional fraternity, winning becomes much easier.
I will delay my predictions for school specific elections till tomorrow. Saturday is when I'll narrow down the remaining candidates into who I think is still on the bubble, before making my final predictions on Sunday.
*This time find 11 grammar mistakes and get a lollipop. Yesterday's winner: Matt Nelson
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Final Four and More
It's that time again, Student Senate elections. I'm going to start off today with the final four; the top four candidates that are pretty much a lock before the election week even began. First lets look at some of the factors that have the most weight in this upcoming elections, and some that are overrated.
What matters:
Name recognition
From having your name in the TD, to being in social spotlight and gossip circles, name recognition is the single most important factor in the election. When it comes down to that weekend vote, you know that your friends have your back, but its whether that quiet girl in the back of your history class remembers your name on the night the ballot goes out that is the real swing vote
Associations:
The most active on campus, are the most active in the polls. Most people don't care about senate and it is why usually not even a majority of campus will vote. The people who do vote are the visible ones who probably are involved with 2 or more clubs on campus. The largest of these associations is greek life, comprised of around 30% of campus. This is why election after election, greeks continued to dominate the votes because greeks recognize other greek members.
What doesn't matter:
Platforms
You can tell us that you're going to renovate greek path, or that you will improve the bell center weight room, but in the end they are usually empty promises and the campus recognizes it as such. Similar to Presidential elections, most people don't really know the platforms of who they are voting for, and those that take the time to actually research the candidates, are usually the hardest to win over anyways so mine as well keep trying to get that quiet girl in the back of your history class.
Posters
Posters have initial value of raising awareness about the election, but in the end as boards become cluttered and people begin to get sick of the eyesore that candidates faces can become, posters do not win over votes. Unique placement of signs can give you a small boost, but the two seconds they see your poster will only maintain their name short term in their head before they think of more pressing issues, like how much I want a buffalo chicken wrap.
Juggernaut Incumbents
Megan and Ben
These two will most likely finish in the top two in total votes based on sheer name recognition. From being involved in greek life, to being the in public spotlight with senate positions, both these candidates have a guaranteed seat. Although Ben has had some rough patches with bad publicity under the impeachment proceeding, his name recognition permeates through campus and that quiet girl in the back of your history class will most definitely be voting for him.
Manufactured Incumbents
Laura and Seejo
If you run in the spotlight of an executive election, you are most likely going to win. In Seejo's case he was able to compete in against a very small stage of candidates and some voters automatically think anyone running for a top office should be more than qualified for a lower senate position. Laura, like Seejo, has never been a Senator-at-Large but having other spots on senate as well as being an upperclassmen will be enough to land them a spot near the top.
Tomorrow, I'll expand the analysis to who I think will be in the Elite 8, and showcase the front runners for the other non at-large elections.
*if you find 26 grammatical mistakes in this update, I will give you a lollipop
What matters:
Name recognition
From having your name in the TD, to being in social spotlight and gossip circles, name recognition is the single most important factor in the election. When it comes down to that weekend vote, you know that your friends have your back, but its whether that quiet girl in the back of your history class remembers your name on the night the ballot goes out that is the real swing vote
Associations:
The most active on campus, are the most active in the polls. Most people don't care about senate and it is why usually not even a majority of campus will vote. The people who do vote are the visible ones who probably are involved with 2 or more clubs on campus. The largest of these associations is greek life, comprised of around 30% of campus. This is why election after election, greeks continued to dominate the votes because greeks recognize other greek members.
What doesn't matter:
Platforms
You can tell us that you're going to renovate greek path, or that you will improve the bell center weight room, but in the end they are usually empty promises and the campus recognizes it as such. Similar to Presidential elections, most people don't really know the platforms of who they are voting for, and those that take the time to actually research the candidates, are usually the hardest to win over anyways so mine as well keep trying to get that quiet girl in the back of your history class.
Posters
Posters have initial value of raising awareness about the election, but in the end as boards become cluttered and people begin to get sick of the eyesore that candidates faces can become, posters do not win over votes. Unique placement of signs can give you a small boost, but the two seconds they see your poster will only maintain their name short term in their head before they think of more pressing issues, like how much I want a buffalo chicken wrap.
Juggernaut Incumbents
Megan and Ben
These two will most likely finish in the top two in total votes based on sheer name recognition. From being involved in greek life, to being the in public spotlight with senate positions, both these candidates have a guaranteed seat. Although Ben has had some rough patches with bad publicity under the impeachment proceeding, his name recognition permeates through campus and that quiet girl in the back of your history class will most definitely be voting for him.
Manufactured Incumbents
Laura and Seejo
If you run in the spotlight of an executive election, you are most likely going to win. In Seejo's case he was able to compete in against a very small stage of candidates and some voters automatically think anyone running for a top office should be more than qualified for a lower senate position. Laura, like Seejo, has never been a Senator-at-Large but having other spots on senate as well as being an upperclassmen will be enough to land them a spot near the top.
Tomorrow, I'll expand the analysis to who I think will be in the Elite 8, and showcase the front runners for the other non at-large elections.
*if you find 26 grammatical mistakes in this update, I will give you a lollipop
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Searcey Flaws
I would first like to thank Shane for making me a contributor to this blog and to analyze his prediction. It was interesting to see how these predictions developed, and the grounds in which they were made. In the following post I'll provide a perspective of how some of the election fundamentals showcase the predictability of such elections and how the Searcy poll loses it's validity without the historical context of previous Senate elections. This may end up transitioning into one of my ideas for my senior thesis next year (barriers to democracy) so I thought i would close my tangential thoughts here. We'll start with a breakdown of some questions that showcase how we can make flaws in some of our judgments
Freshmen are most likely to vote, but why least likely to win?
Why did everyone receive almost twice as many votes as FB group members?
Why does most of campus not vote even when most of campus is aware of the elections?
From the following I'll try and prove how the election isn't a long drawn out process with frontrunner's and underdog's like United States elections, but instead that most of the election is won before the petitions are even released.
Vivacious Incumbents Handicap: +3
Name key contributors
1. Eric greek life, extensive name recognition
2. Kyle incumbent, unique charisma, well known in business school
3. Megan greek life, name recognition from previous election
4. Sam greek life, RHA, name recognition from previous election
The incumbents enter the race with the heaviest handicap, most people who vote for incumbents don't actually know platforms or what that person has actually done but instead the most prominent facts that they recall is their associations with groups and titles. Sam and Megan were not true incumbents to the At-Large position but being on the senate table will find it's way into transferring into name recognition, this can explain the difference between Eric's 935 votes to Sam's 582 which parallels real politics in which 90% of incumbent senators and representatives are elected. Most voters give incumbents the benefit of the doubt and since voting is an easy task of just clicking, the easy access to a ballot ensures that everyone votes not just the ones that are very motivated. this leads some voters to hastily click on names they know instead of leaving a semi barren ballot. After the incumbents the other candidates were all separated by less than 100 votes which also showcases how heavy the incumbency factor is. For those that voted in the recent presidential election, and are not accustomed to thinking that many people vote in such a manner, try and remember how you voted for the 20+ other candidates that were not seeking presidential office. We felt justified in one or two candidates but beyond that small factors influenced us to vote one way instead of abstain. I regretfully remember writing in Ryan Kessler for the sanitation director position, I only regret it because I know now that he would of done a horrible job.
Experienced Platformer Handicap -1
5. Emily K. greek life, disenfranchised voters
6. Norah greek life, active members of senate
From here on out individuals are fighting for very small margins to put them on top, the smallest association with another organization could of made the 20 point difference to knock them down from 5th to 8th. The experienced platformer has the most room to analyze and draw up a platform that is the middle ground between what voter's want and what they know can be accomplished with current problems. A platformer is a candidate that has been incubated outside of senate and feels like they have the ability to jump right into the mix with the right ideas. Most freshmen cannot come in with the same platforms as these candidates because they don't feel they have enough experience to stray away from mainstream ideas, and develop their platforms on a cushioned barriers preventing them from making certain claims such as inefficiencies of a certain department. Incumbents cannot make some of the claims that platformer's can becouse calling out problems would be calling themselves out. These candidates have nothing to lose in not taking the paved paths and instead feel confident enough to make their own route. Emily struck more disenfranchised voters with her platform of showcasing how senate is broken. Norah struck those members of organizations that are frustrated in common problems that always reoccur. These candidates have more work to do because to get votes they need to convince those that do vote that their is a problem and nobody else is addressing it, and then get the disenfranchised voters to come back and vote for a candidate that finally believes in what they want.
Popular Buds Handicap +1
7: Greg Larson greek life, SAB, Organizational Council
8: Ben Whitmer greek life, RHA, hall president
These individuals are the the newbies that are the most commonly accepted among the most common of voters: Freshman. What sets these candidates apart from most other freshman is their ability to have their names grow into the minds of upperclassman. Larson gained buzz from his work with SAB and OC in which members were vocal about his contributions, other upperclassman kept his name afloat by crediting his approachability and charisma. Whitmer had a strong presence in the freshman class by having name recognition as hall president which is one of the few opportunities open to freshmen seeking leadership experience in heading a committee. Popularity and accolades in residence life kept his head visible amongst freshmen that remain relatively unknown to most upperclass voters. Freshman usually are more skeptical of each other and usually look upwards for guidance and advice on matters they are unsure of, they are more likely to vote for an upperclassmen then assume one of their own can do a better job.
Predictable Anomalies Handicap +2
9. Earl international students, RHA,
10. Carla greek life, name recognition from previous elections
9 and 10 have historically been the shocker's of the elections and this year was no different. Last year when the number 9 candidate was announced there was silence in the crowd and many stood amazed. 10 Last year went to a very popular junior who many people felt would of landed higher. Earl summarized the importance of having a unique base that reaches a consensus on voting for you over other candidates. Not being an incumbent or in greek life heavily hurt his chances relative to other candidates but being a member of International Students Association gave him a head start on the 450+ international students at Drake. This with residence life made him a lock in my earliest predictions but was considered a shock to some including the searcey poll. Carla however became an incumbency rider, showcasing how name recognition alone can ,get people elected. With no platform, no signs, and no campaign visits, many people were shocked on both sides for differing reasons. Many freshmen still learning the candidates didn't fully know who she was but accepted her as a leader on campus, and many upperclassmen wondered why she was not near the top with other incumbents. With an election cycle being only a week long, it's intense and busy for the candidates but in the end most of their minds were already made up the week before. How else can we explain a candidate like Carla winning?
Final thoughts
It was intresting when shuffling my notes, I noticed the first prediction I made on this election that had two lists, one had 8 senators I wanted to win, and the other had 10 senator's I thought would win. Luckily the latter was a perfect 10 but later on my predictions were altered by the first list. I also went through this selective process of not necessarily looking for candidates to find out what they stood for but instead looking into information that validated the claims I already have made. Many voter's go through the same process of backing certain candidates and shedding no light on other candidates, this makes a huge barrier to the campaign week actually being effective.
This campaign week showcases many aspects that are prevalent in modern politics. I'll leave you with my predictions on committee assignments ranked in the order of certainty. next week I may end up commenting on the negative handicaps of those that lost, most which they could not control, just like the actual election.
Emily K. Student Fees and Allocations Committee
Kyle Academic Affairs
Earl Community Outreach
Norah Campus Advancement
Ben Student Life Committee
Carla Faculty Senate Liaison
Sam Public Affairs Committee
Megan Organizational Senator Co-Chair
Greg Organizational Senator Co-Chair
Eric First Year Interest Committee
Freshmen are most likely to vote, but why least likely to win?
Why did everyone receive almost twice as many votes as FB group members?
Why does most of campus not vote even when most of campus is aware of the elections?
From the following I'll try and prove how the election isn't a long drawn out process with frontrunner's and underdog's like United States elections, but instead that most of the election is won before the petitions are even released.
Vivacious Incumbents Handicap: +3
Name key contributors
1. Eric greek life, extensive name recognition
2. Kyle incumbent, unique charisma, well known in business school
3. Megan greek life, name recognition from previous election
4. Sam greek life, RHA, name recognition from previous election
The incumbents enter the race with the heaviest handicap, most people who vote for incumbents don't actually know platforms or what that person has actually done but instead the most prominent facts that they recall is their associations with groups and titles. Sam and Megan were not true incumbents to the At-Large position but being on the senate table will find it's way into transferring into name recognition, this can explain the difference between Eric's 935 votes to Sam's 582 which parallels real politics in which 90% of incumbent senators and representatives are elected. Most voters give incumbents the benefit of the doubt and since voting is an easy task of just clicking, the easy access to a ballot ensures that everyone votes not just the ones that are very motivated. this leads some voters to hastily click on names they know instead of leaving a semi barren ballot. After the incumbents the other candidates were all separated by less than 100 votes which also showcases how heavy the incumbency factor is. For those that voted in the recent presidential election, and are not accustomed to thinking that many people vote in such a manner, try and remember how you voted for the 20+ other candidates that were not seeking presidential office. We felt justified in one or two candidates but beyond that small factors influenced us to vote one way instead of abstain. I regretfully remember writing in Ryan Kessler for the sanitation director position, I only regret it because I know now that he would of done a horrible job.
Experienced Platformer Handicap -1
5. Emily K. greek life, disenfranchised voters
6. Norah greek life, active members of senate
From here on out individuals are fighting for very small margins to put them on top, the smallest association with another organization could of made the 20 point difference to knock them down from 5th to 8th. The experienced platformer has the most room to analyze and draw up a platform that is the middle ground between what voter's want and what they know can be accomplished with current problems. A platformer is a candidate that has been incubated outside of senate and feels like they have the ability to jump right into the mix with the right ideas. Most freshmen cannot come in with the same platforms as these candidates because they don't feel they have enough experience to stray away from mainstream ideas, and develop their platforms on a cushioned barriers preventing them from making certain claims such as inefficiencies of a certain department. Incumbents cannot make some of the claims that platformer's can becouse calling out problems would be calling themselves out. These candidates have nothing to lose in not taking the paved paths and instead feel confident enough to make their own route. Emily struck more disenfranchised voters with her platform of showcasing how senate is broken. Norah struck those members of organizations that are frustrated in common problems that always reoccur. These candidates have more work to do because to get votes they need to convince those that do vote that their is a problem and nobody else is addressing it, and then get the disenfranchised voters to come back and vote for a candidate that finally believes in what they want.
Popular Buds Handicap +1
7: Greg Larson greek life, SAB, Organizational Council
8: Ben Whitmer greek life, RHA, hall president
These individuals are the the newbies that are the most commonly accepted among the most common of voters: Freshman. What sets these candidates apart from most other freshman is their ability to have their names grow into the minds of upperclassman. Larson gained buzz from his work with SAB and OC in which members were vocal about his contributions, other upperclassman kept his name afloat by crediting his approachability and charisma. Whitmer had a strong presence in the freshman class by having name recognition as hall president which is one of the few opportunities open to freshmen seeking leadership experience in heading a committee. Popularity and accolades in residence life kept his head visible amongst freshmen that remain relatively unknown to most upperclass voters. Freshman usually are more skeptical of each other and usually look upwards for guidance and advice on matters they are unsure of, they are more likely to vote for an upperclassmen then assume one of their own can do a better job.
Predictable Anomalies Handicap +2
9. Earl international students, RHA,
10. Carla greek life, name recognition from previous elections
9 and 10 have historically been the shocker's of the elections and this year was no different. Last year when the number 9 candidate was announced there was silence in the crowd and many stood amazed. 10 Last year went to a very popular junior who many people felt would of landed higher. Earl summarized the importance of having a unique base that reaches a consensus on voting for you over other candidates. Not being an incumbent or in greek life heavily hurt his chances relative to other candidates but being a member of International Students Association gave him a head start on the 450+ international students at Drake. This with residence life made him a lock in my earliest predictions but was considered a shock to some including the searcey poll. Carla however became an incumbency rider, showcasing how name recognition alone can ,get people elected. With no platform, no signs, and no campaign visits, many people were shocked on both sides for differing reasons. Many freshmen still learning the candidates didn't fully know who she was but accepted her as a leader on campus, and many upperclassmen wondered why she was not near the top with other incumbents. With an election cycle being only a week long, it's intense and busy for the candidates but in the end most of their minds were already made up the week before. How else can we explain a candidate like Carla winning?
Final thoughts
It was intresting when shuffling my notes, I noticed the first prediction I made on this election that had two lists, one had 8 senators I wanted to win, and the other had 10 senator's I thought would win. Luckily the latter was a perfect 10 but later on my predictions were altered by the first list. I also went through this selective process of not necessarily looking for candidates to find out what they stood for but instead looking into information that validated the claims I already have made. Many voter's go through the same process of backing certain candidates and shedding no light on other candidates, this makes a huge barrier to the campaign week actually being effective.
This campaign week showcases many aspects that are prevalent in modern politics. I'll leave you with my predictions on committee assignments ranked in the order of certainty. next week I may end up commenting on the negative handicaps of those that lost, most which they could not control, just like the actual election.
Emily K. Student Fees and Allocations Committee
Kyle Academic Affairs
Earl Community Outreach
Norah Campus Advancement
Ben Student Life Committee
Carla Faculty Senate Liaison
Sam Public Affairs Committee
Megan Organizational Senator Co-Chair
Greg Organizational Senator Co-Chair
Eric First Year Interest Committee
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Election Results: The Searcey Poll calls 9 of 10.
The Searcey Poll's Election Forecast was taken by storm as Senator-elect Earl Lee claimed his spot in the Top 10 vote getters and Jennifer Field loses out, despite gathering 270+ Facebook group members.
Would the results have been different if Nowacki and Lichty-Smith were not disqualified after voting was open?
Locks:
Eric Gudmundson
Kyle Lewandowski
Jennifer Field (OUT)
Toss-Ups:
Carla Olszewski
Norah Carroll
Megan Hutcheson
Ben Whitmer
Greg Larson
Samantha Haas
Emily Krstulic
Seejo Valacheril (OUT)
Out:
Chris Nowacki
Emily Lichty-Smith
Tyler Coe
Earl Lee (IN)
Kyle Schura
Jennifer Calder
Byron Spears
Kristen Corns
Would the results have been different if Nowacki and Lichty-Smith were not disqualified after voting was open?
Locks:
Eric Gudmundson
Kyle Lewandowski
Jennifer Field (OUT)
Toss-Ups:
Carla Olszewski
Norah Carroll
Megan Hutcheson
Ben Whitmer
Greg Larson
Samantha Haas
Emily Krstulic
Seejo Valacheril (OUT)
Out:
Chris Nowacki
Emily Lichty-Smith
Tyler Coe
Earl Lee (IN)
Kyle Schura
Jennifer Calder
Byron Spears
Kristen Corns
Monday, April 6, 2009
Did you Vote in the Senator-at-Large election?
Take The Searcey Poll's Exit Poll!
Link
Pass along to friends and people you know who voted!
Access Poll at http://tinyurl.com/drakeexitpoll
Link
Pass along to friends and people you know who voted!
Access Poll at http://tinyurl.com/drakeexitpoll
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
